In 2025, the United States sharply reduced foreign assistance after the Trump administration ordered a broad review of aid programs and moved to dismantle USAID. U.S. foreign-assistance data show that 2025 represented a major break from the unusually high spending levels of 2022–2024.
U.S. foreign aid spending had remained relatively stable from 2015 through 2021, averaging approximately $40-45 billion annually. Spending then surged to record levels during 2022–2024, driven primarily by emergency assistance to Ukraine following Russia's invasion, COVID-19 pandemic response programs, and expanded humanitarian aid. The 2025 cuts brought spending levels back down, though still above the 2015-2021 baseline.
Overall mortality in sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa faces significant health challenges reflected in its overall mortality statistics. According to Macrotrends, the crude death rate (deaths per 1,000 population) has been declining steadily in recent years, dropping from 8.02 per 1,000 in 2023 to 7.91 in 2024, and further to 7.80 in 2025.
With a rapidly growing population that exceeded 1.26 billion people in 2025, these mortality rates translate to substantial absolute numbers:
| Year | Population (millions) | Death Rate (per 1,000) | Estimated Total Deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1,108 | 8.51 | 9,429,000 |
| 2021 | 1,136 | 8.38 | 9,520,000 |
| 2022 | 1,166 | 8.17 | 9,526,000 |
| 2023 | 1,196 | 8.02 | 9,592,000 |
| 2024 | 1,227 | 7.91 | 9,706,000 |
| 2025 | 1,257 | 7.80 | 9,805,000 |
Between 2020 and 2025, approximately **9.4 to 9.8 million people died annually** in sub-Saharan Africa, totaling roughly **57.6 million deaths** over this six-year period. These deaths resulted from complex factors including infectious diseases (HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis), non-communicable diseases, malnutrition, inadequate healthcare infrastructure, limited access to clean water and sanitation, and maternal mortality—systemic challenges that existed long before any U.S. policy changes in 2025.
Notably, while the death rate per capita declined throughout this period, the absolute number of deaths increased due to rapid population growth. The mortality rate was already improving in 2023, 2024, and 2025, demonstrating progress independent of the 2025 aid cuts.
The trend is important when evaluating claims about the effects of the 2025 aid cuts.
The Elon Musk accusation
Critics of Musk's role in the 2025 USAID reductions argued that terminating or disrupting aid programs could lead to additional deaths. That is a legitimate policy question because interrupted medical, nutrition and humanitarian programs can have real consequences. However, saying that **Elon Musk personally caused Africa's mortality burden is not supported by the mortality data**.
The data above provides an important reality check: sub-Saharan Africa's death rate per capita **declined steadily from 8.51 per 1,000 in 2020 to 7.80 in 2025**, throughout the period when aid cuts were being implemented. There is therefore no evidence in these figures for a simple claim that Musk's 2025 actions explain the region's existing mortality burden.